Background

This annexe provides details of a review of KCR 4, Changing demographics.

The description of this risk is as follows:- KCR 4 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS: Inability to meet statutory duties due to changes in demographics. Over time, the demographic makeup of York’s population is shifting due to a number of factors including new housing, inward migration, and natural population shifts due to birth and death patterns. A number of these changes, for instance the increasing number of people living with health and care needs, bring with them significant challenges particularly in the delivery of social care and public health services. The council needs to ensure that community impacts are planned for and resourced.

· The data underpinning the basis for this risk has not been reviewed for some time. Rather than continue to add detail to wording that has not been fully refreshed for several years, the opportunity has been taken to fully refresh and revise this risk.

· Work is underway to review the available demographic data and provide analysis to the Director of Public Health and the Corporate Director of ASC about how York’s demographics are likely to change, and this will inform a more up to date analysis of the risks, impacts, and success of existing control measures.

· The narrative below therefore provides the outline scope for the full review.

Risk Detail

Development and regeneration, and the city’s unique heritage and culture, makes York more desirable a place to live, work and study. This is likely to result in increasing inward migration to York. The number of people in each age band is likely to change, and the overall rise in population levels and differences in the demographic mix may change the likely demand and need for council services and support.  The potential changes are set out below:-

· The gradual aging of the population increases care and support needs which outstrip council resources

· An increase in complexity of needs requiring council support is seen as people get older and live longer in ill health

· Demographic change in the working age population meaning workforce supply unable to meet workforce demand

· Population growth including that caused by additional housing through the Local Plan increases the demand for all council services

· Changes to the costs of externally commissioned services, related to increased land and property values

· Growth in specific cohorts of the population, for instance a growth in the number of people with a disability or living with dementia is not matched by an adjustment in the way services are delivered to include and cater for the needs of these cohorts

Implications/consequences

· The impact of additional demands may cause significant financial and delivery challenges in meeting statutory duties, such as the cost of care provision, school placements, SEND provision, mental health care and support, adult social care and demand for environmental services (eg waste collection).

· For some people, if those statutory needs are not met, harm may occur to the individual.

· If the funding available to the council does not keep up with the financial pressures of these demands, a greater proportion of council overall funding must be spent on meeting statutory duties, reducing the ability of the council to deliver discretionary services.

· The council may experience a reputational impact if services are not delivered to a good standard

· There is a risk of legal challenge, with very significant consequences if statutory duties are not met, up to and including government intervention; criminal prosecution; civil challenge; and or financial sanctions.

· The ability to steer, shape, signal and manage the external care provider market is impeded where the council-commissioned share of that market reduces, for example where the self-funded share increases.

· There may be an inability to recruit workers in key service areas in sufficient numbers to meet demands, e.g. care and support workers.

Controls

· An increase in council tax paying citizen/household numbers does also increase income for the council which in part will fund some of the demand for services.

· The council’s approach to prevention and the strategies driving actions to prevent, reduce and delay the need for support across the people-based services –

Ø Place planning strategy to ensure adequate supply of school places

Ø Local area working structures in frontline services, including early intervention initiatives and neighbourhood working

Ø Strengths based assessment and care management reviews to seek to reduce and delay needs for social care support and promote greater independence

Ø Advice and Information - providing residents with direct access to support and services, to enable signposting and self help  

Ø Closer integrated work with NHS commissioning partners through the Place partnership

Ø York Skills Strategy

Ø Redesign and implementation of new arrangements for early help and prevention, for instance the RAISE York programme, children’s social care reform, integrated neighbourhood working e.g. Mental Health and Frailty Hub

Ø Ongoing analysis of the Local Plan and Major development projects demographic data to determine the impact on all CYC services.

· Partnership working to identify ways to make best use of the ‘York pound’ where other key organisations in the city or region have a mutual interest in preventing or reducing need and in working together to meet need more efficiently and more effectively (such as the combined authority; health partners; education providers; voluntary sector organisations; and private providers of health and care services).

· Impact assessment and analysis included as part of every formal decision, to assess the likely effect for people in specific groups or with specific needs in the city.

· Prioritisation of funding towards meeting statutory duties, to reduce legal risks and risks of harm to people

· A whole system, whole council approach to supporting people in York to live as independently as possible, for as long as possible.

· Data analysis to inform modelling of demand, forecasting and budget setting for key services

Risk Owner and Actions

Sara Storey – risk owner

Peter Roderick – refreshed data analyses for York demographic change

Individual directorates – where appropriate as lead directors for the strategies impacting control measures